MEDIA & PROPERTY INSIGHTS
The National Housing Supply Council was established by the Treasurer and the Minister for Housing in 2008 to monitor housing demand, supply and affordability in Australia, as well as to identify gaps between housing supply and demand and to highlight strain on the housing system.
Demand for housing projected to increase over the next 20 years...
Executive Summary:
Imbalance between demand and supply to grow!
The Council's analysis indicates that the housing shortfall is likely to increase further in the coming years. The key points are as follows.
- The gap between total underlying demand and total supply is estimated to have increased by approximately 28,200 dwellings in the year to June 2010, to a cumulative shortfall of 186,800 dwellings since 2001.
- There was a net increase of 131,000 dwellings in 2009-10, after adjusting for conversions, demolitions and some properties being vacant.
- The approach used in this report to estimating the gap between supply and underlying demand produces a shortfall of 80,500 dwellings over the year to end June 2009, and a revised cumulative gap of 158,500 by June 2009. This compares with estimates for the same period of 78,800 and 178,400, respectively in the 2010 State of Supply Report. The inclusion of conversions reduces the estimated level of the gap from 2002 onwards compared to previous projections.
- The Council has also updated its longer-term projections of the gap, although these are highly sensitive to the assumptions used. The Council's central projection suggests that over the five years to 2015, the cumulative demand-supply gap since 2001 is projected to grow by a further 142,000 dwellings to 328,800 dwellings.
- By 2030, the same projection assumptions produce a cumulative gap of 640,200 dwellings.
Conclusions:
Despite the apparent easing of demand and price pressures in the market, demographic trends and current and historic rates of house building point to a widening of the 'housing shortfall'.
